Sunday, March 1, 2015

CNX Nifty Index : Time Frame Bi-Monthly

"The most important single concept about the Elliott Oscillator is that the highest/lowest point of the Oscillator is connected to the bullish/bearish Wave 3 of the swing.  Related concepts are that Wave 4 crosses the zero line in the opposite direction of the trend. Wave 5 often makes a new high or low price for the swing but always diverges from the Oscillator. If the suspected Wave 5 makes a new extreme price simultaneously with a new Oscillator extreme then it is not a Wave 5."
"The Elliott Oscillator is most effective when the chart has the "correct" number of bars. From 100 to 150 bars is the correct number of bars to use with the oscillator. Dr. Bill Williams suggests 100-140. Tom Joseph implies that 150 is right. We like to use about 120 bars, which is comfortably in the middle of that range, and which has consistently produced reliable results."

Nifty Index is being compiled since 02/07/1990 ; as such, a Time Frame of Bi-Monthly (Open, High, Low & Close over a period of two months for the Index) cover the full range of the Index since inception.  Full range Chart in 148 candles is shown herein.


MACD (5,34,5) is not available for the first 39 candles due to default Data requirement. As such, using a zoomed view over last 100 candles fulfilling the minimum requirement :

Presently, Nifty is in Wave 5 of the bigger degree IMHO. Let us see if it is correctly label in next few months.

112 Candles  Chart cover additional two years of trades. Rest as in other Charts.

Monday, February 16, 2015

CNX Nifty : Time Frame 75 Minute - Up date as on 16/02/2015

I had been making manual reading of TF 15 minutes from Netdania.com till Thursday. Having discovered that the said site allowed Data in Table form, I have started copying the Table in Excel and create TF 75 Minutes aided by Excel.

Further on scrutiny of my earlier Data, I found four silly mistakes in my earlier compilation of 1460 different data. I have rectified my data base and would be compiling further Data aided by excel (and hence error free). Here is Nifty TF 75 Mins Chart for Eod 16/02/2015. Notice easying in EWO.


In TF 15 Minutes, I am observing early sign of easying of the up moves. Notice the divergence & EWO nearing zero line .


Saturday, January 31, 2015

CNX Nifty : Time Frame 75 Minute


http://www.netdania.com provides live, although a bit delayed, Nifty & a select others date in  1, 5, 15, 30 , 60 minutes etc :



However, it does not provide a 75 minute data which was built up based on readings of 15 minute data. When I started compiling it, the data available was from 30th October 2014 only. For calculation of MACD (5,34,5), otherwise known as Elliot Wave Oscillator , a base period of  34 plus 5 candles required ( over approximate 7 days ).

But, why am I fancying for a TF 75 Minute ? Well, please refer to :


Here is Nifty Index Chart in resultant TF 75 Minutes from 13th November 2014.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Indian Election 2004 : A Legacy of Divide & Rule

Arrogance of politicians lead me to an analysis of the Lok Shabha Election Results 2004 (being the latest available in the public domain: www.eci.nin.in )

Most significant fact is that just 6(SIX) M P were elected on the basis of a majority of the electors having selected them out of 543 elected representatives. Chairman of the UPA is NOT one among these SIX. Just 211 other members were elected with majority of votes casted in their favour.

We may state accordingly that the elected members are NOT representative of the public in general.

Winners with vote shares in excess of 50% are tabulated below:

Name of State : Total number of seats : Majority Of ELECTORS : 51-60% of Voters : 61-70 % of VOTERS : 71 or more % of VOTERS

Andhra Pradesh 42 0 26 2 0

Arunachal Pradesh 2 0 2 0 0

Assam 14 1 0 0 1

Bihar 40 0 10 1 0

Goa 2 0 2 0 0

Gujarat 26 0 11 1 0

Haryana 10 0 1 0 0

Himachal Pradesh 4 0 2 0 0

Jammu & Kashmir 6 0 2 0 0

Karnataka 28 0 5 0 0

Kerala 20 0 4 0 0

Madhya Pradesh 29 0 10 3 0

Maharastra 48 0 13 1 1

Manipur 2 0 0 0 0

Meghalaya 2 0 1 1 0

Mizoram 1 0 1 0 0

Nagaland 1 1 0 0 1

Orissa 21 0 10 1 0

Punjab 13 0 3 0 0

Rajasthan 25 0 13 1 0

Sikkim 1 1 0 1 0

Tamilnadu 39 0 21 13 0

Tripura 2 0 0 1 1

Uttar Pradesh 80 0 5 4 0

West Bengal 42 3 15 6 1

Chattisgarh 11 0 6 0 0

Jharkhand 14 0 3 0 0

Uttaranchal 5 0 1 0 0

Andaman 1 0 1 0 0

Chandigarh 1 0 1 0 0

Dadra 1 0 0 0 0

Daman & Diu 1 0 0 0 0

National Capital Territory 7 0 6 0 1

Lakshadweep 1 0 0 0 0

Pondicherry 1 0 0 0 0


Total 543 6 175 36 6

Simplely put just six MP's were elected by majority of the electors whereas 326 MP's were elected by old British adage of "Divide & rule"

Friday, November 4, 2011

Petrol Prices : Indian Paradox



Based on the Telegraph costing chart,the price difference must be due to 'state taxing' difference.


Product SellingUnit Mumbai Delhi Chennai Kolkata
SPEED LITRE 75.93 71.25 75.44 76.87
SPEED 97 LITRE 85.00 80.00 84.00 85.00
DIESEL LITRE 50.75 45.82 49.22 48.80
Source: BPCL

To any student of economics , it is elementary that a produce is cheapest at the place of its origin or production. As it is processed or transported, it cost keep enhancing due to 'cost element'. Surprising , in India petrol products are made available in NCR New Delhi at lower level than rest of india. Mumbai, Chennai or Kolkata are ports with a refineries in close proximity and still such products are much costlier.


In Saudi Arabia ( a petrol producer) , petrol products are cheapest in the world , being 0.11 times India; in most others countries of the world including Pakistan 0.52, USA 0.53 , Canada 0.75 it is cheaper & in Italy 1.01, UK 1.14 and Turkey 1.35 , it is more expensive.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Dhirubhai Ambani : Fair means and foul



Library of Congress
"Dhirubhai Ambani's life is a rags-to-riches story, from Bombay's crowded pavements and bazaars to the city's extravagantly wealthy social circles where business tycoons, stockmarket speculators, smugglers, politicians and Hindi film stars mingle, make money, make and break marriages and carry out prolonged feuds-sometimes violent, often histrionic."--BOOK JACKET. "Until the arrival of Ambani, India's big business scene was dominated by a few industrial houses from British times. In just 26 years since its foundation, Ambani's Reliance group has risen to rival these houses. By 1995 the group had 2.6 million investors."--BOOK JACKET. "Along with the dramatic expansion of the Reliance Group have come intricate political connections, a whole raft of corruption charges and a rollercoaster of booms and crashes for Ambani and his company. This study shows how capitalism emerges by fair means and foul in the new industrial countries of the Third World, and is one of very few studies of Asian or Third World tycoons."--BOOK JACKET.

ISBN-10: 1864484683
ISBN-13: 978-1864484687

The book had been made "out of stock" by people close to the legendary man & is quoted at "EUR 438,85" at amazone.com

Someone got hold of a softcopy and reading through it. Extract follows:

Quoted from the book. Comment are mine & in italics.
------------------------------------------------------------------

First - Opportunity money from thin air!

Suddenly Govt of Yemen finds that RIAL started to go out of circulation!

They trace disappearing coins south to Port of ADEN where Dhirubhai had open order to buy as many rials as possible. He was melting them and selling them in london. As Rial coins were made of Silver and after melting they had profit potential for him! he made 100000 rupees in 3 months at that point of time!

Comment: They had been circulating story of an Indian selling petrol at a Pump in Aden.

He changed the accounting year 4 times in 15 years.

Example: you may follow accounting year from March to march and the suddenly you follow Jan - Dec. Guess why?

Well by doing so he was able to eliminate the losing months from balance sheet and spruce it up to show profits!

Comment: Government made "March ending" compulsory for everybody & my father's proprietory firm ending on 'Auspious Ratha Jatra' had to comply. When Ambani kept changing , none question him.


He always made sure Reliance share price grew every year to attract more and more investors.

He did that by forming 15 NRI companies who use to invest in Reliance!

He even killed a bear Cartel attack from Kolkatta traders on Reliance share, by buying aggressively against them, thus in end making the cartel of traders bankrupt.

From there he became messiah of common man.

Comment : Issue after issue of convertible debentures and non-convertible debentures by Reliance and others made many "lakhpati" all over India.

UTI Investments Chief at that point of time and Dhirubhai made friends and UTI invested major in Reliance and kept on doing so time to time. This made both go strong in time to time benefiting each other!


He was the one who launched debenture later converted to shares, which mean by one stroke you can change the Debt into equity and in turn make your balance sheet look healthy, off go the Interest payments!

Comment: This procedure got halted by a Central government banning NCD to equity just before a scheduled board meeting.

Once a gujrati newspaper wrote in negative aspect for reliance. When dhirbhai came to know this, the marketing budget was shelved for that newspaper. This led to loss of 600000/- every month at that point of time for them.

As a damage control guy wrote positive next month and got his budget back.

So our king was controlling the media too!