BSE Sensex : Monthly Chart 1991-2016

According to Prof. Jeremy Siegel's analysis of total real return since 1802, all an investor needs do is hold for 17 years and they will never lose money in the market.

I had accordingly applied that observation to BSE Sensex from January 1991. Monthly closing is based on average of the Daily close. Here is the chart :

For benefits of all , I am sharing a selected  low in Sensex along with high at the end of 17th year  in the Table :

In 122 of monthly_Up moves, Sensex gained average of 309.69 & in 82 of monthly_Down moves, Sensex lost average of  (237.23) points ; thereby in 164 months Sensex gained a net 5941.68 & 40 months of the Step_Sum (Monthly) Sensex 12387.51 . As such, a gain of 18,329.19 over the starting value of 996.45 in 17 years of up & down in SENSEX gave a mammoth growth of 1839%  

With reference to low of 2918 (September 2001) & 3033 (May 2003), we may look forward to a high in September 2018 & May 2020 .

Nifty : A BEV (Bear Eye Views) analysis for 1995-2016 Monthly

"A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20 % or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market. "

Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp#ixzz3y2bzk0iu 

In marked contrast to views of the Bulls , who expect the prices keep rising one high after another, another bunch of peoples keep saying that the market had seen enough of highs ; they consider all high(s) to be last "All Time High" (ATH). 

The Bear’s Eye View as it’s no coincidence that this is exactly how Mr Bear sees each of these new all-time highs: whether it was 1001.53 during November 1995, or our latest all-time high of 9119.20 during  March 2015, all he sees are big fat ZEROS.  Mr Bear isn’t impressed by new highs in the   NIFTY because the only thing he cares about is how many percentage points he can claw back from each of them.  During bull markets, he’s lucky to get back 10%-15%.  These small-temporary declines are called “bull market corrections,” from which the Nifty will rebound to make another, in a string of new BEV_Zeros seen during a bull market.  Eventually however, every bull market reaches its final all-time high, as is painfully evident below. Mr Bear sometimes claws back 35% or more from a BEV Zero during historic bear markets. 

                      Bear’s Eye View (BEV) chart.

The NSE Nifty, starting from November 1995 to  January 2016,  BEV chart uses monthly data. 



BEV may be explained to be decrease from prior High , expressed as percentage ; more elaborately, (every month's Low  minus prior High) divided by prior high in %. As for example, the last ATH is 9119.20  which is  taken as " prior high" , subsequent monthly lows are used to determine the value for BEV ; BEV for January 2016 with monthly low taken as "7241.50  is (7241.50 -9119.20)*100/9119.20 = (-1877.7)*100/9119.2 = (- 20.59) .

Here is an analysis of 20 years 3 months (including current January 2016) of the Nifty :

In the first case, the correction was confined to below 20% . Next case, corrections, over 3 months were, of less than 20%, followed by more than 20% corrections during subsequent 4 months & peaking at 35.55 % & finally restoration to starting point/or above in 6 months of which  7-4= 3 months of BEV in excess of 20 
Rest of the table to be understood similarly.

In summary, it may be mentioned that out of 243 months of the NIFTY,
 BEV values  of 20 or more % were in 110 months,(45%) 
 BEV values  of  less than 20 % were in 79 months (32%) , and
 bulls were kings in just 54 months (22% over all)

Ghulam Ali : Selected Gazals (with Lyrics)

Ghulam Ali - Chupke Chupke Raat Din Aansoo Bahana Yaad Hai - | Ghazal 

LIVE https://youtu.be/MOyfaTxs6D8

Chupke Chupke Raat Din lyrics

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali/chupke_chupke_raat_din-lyrics-1215685.html#ixzz3vCc5Gi3G

Chupke chupke raat din aansuu bahanaa yaad hai
Ham ko ab tak aashiqii kaa vo zamaanaa yaad hai
Tujhase milate hi vo kuch Bebaak ho jaanaa meraa
Aur teraa daaton mein vo Ungalii dabaanaa yaad hai
Chori Chori ham se tum aa kar mile the jis Jagah
Muddatein Guzarin par ab tak wo Thikaanaa yaad hai
Khench lenaa vo meraa parde kaa konaa daffaatan
Aur Dupatte se teraa vo Moonh Chhupaanaa yaad hai
Do-pahar ki dhuup mein mere bulaane ke liye
Vo teraa kothe pe nange paaoon aanaa yaad hai
Baahazaaraan iztiraab-o-sad-hazaaraan ishtiyaaq
Tujhase vo pahale pahal dil kaa lagaanaa yaad hai
Jaan kar sotaa tujhe vo qasa-e-paabosii meraa
Aur teraa Thukaraa ke sar vo muskuraanaa yaad hai
Tujh ko jab tanhaa kabhii paanaa to az_raahe-lihaaz
Hal-e-dil baatoon hii baatoon mein jataanaa yaad hai
Jab sivaa mere tumhaaraa koii diivaanaa na thaa
Sach kaho kyaa tum ko bhii vo kaarKhaanaa yaad hai
Gair kii nazaroon se bachakar sab kii marzii ke Khilaaf
Vo teraa chorii chhipe raatoon ko aanaa yaad hai
Aa gaya gar vasl kii shab bhii kahiin zikr-e-firaaq
Vo teraa ro ro ke bhi mujhko rulaanaa yaad hai
Dekhanaa mujhako jo bargashtaa to sau sau naaz se
Jab manaa lenaa to phir Khud ruuTh jaanaa yaad hai
BeruKhii ke Saath sunaanaa Dard-e-Dil kii dastaan
Aur kaliye mein tera vo kangan ghumaanaa yaad hai
Vaqt-e-RuKhsat Alvidaa kaa Lafz Kahane ke liye
Vo Tere Sukhe Laboon kaa thar-tharaanaa yaad hai
Baavajuud-e-iddaa-e-ittaqaa 'Hasrat' mujhe
Aaj tak ahad-e-havas kaa ye fasaanaa yaad hai

Submitted by Guest

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali/chamakte_chaand_ko-lyrics-1215671.html#ixzz3vCcVCtj5

 

https://youtu.be/vdzcBlFYKyU

Chamakte Chaand Ko lyrics

huuun huuuum aaaa aaa-2

(chamakte chand ko
chamakte chand ko tuta hua tara bana dala X2
meri aawargi ne mujhko aawara bana dala
chamakte)-2

huuun huuuum aaaa aaa-2

bada dilkash bada rangeen hai yeh shehar kehte hain X2
yahan par hain hazaron ghar gharon mein log rehte hain
mujhe is shehar ne galiyon ka banjara bana dala
chamakte chand...

main is duniya ko aksar dekh kar hairaan hota hun X2
na mujhse ban saka chhota saghar,din raat rota hun
khudaya tune kaise ye jahan sara bana dala
chamakte chand...

mere malik, mera dil kyun tadapta hai, sulagta hai X2
teri marzi , teri marzi pe kiska zor chalta hai
kisi ko gul, kisi ko tune angara bana dala
chamakte chand...

yehi aagaz tha mera, yehi anjam hona tha X2
mujhe barbaad hona tha, mujhe nakaam hona tha
mujhe taqdeer ne taqdeer ka mara bana dala
chamakte chand...

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali/jabse_tune_mujhe_deewana_bana_rakha_hai-lyrics-1215689.html#ixzz3vCdO7r7F

https://youtu.be/CjA0k6dNnZ4

Jabse Tune Mujhe Deewana Bana Rakha Hai lyrics

      

jabase tune mujhe deewaana bana rakha hai
sang har shaks ne haathon mein utha rakha hai

usake dil par bhi kadi ishq me guzari hogi
naam jisane bhi muhabbat ka sazaa rakha hai

pattharon aaj mere sar pe barasate kyon ho
mainne tujhako bhi kabhi apana khuda rakha hai

ab mere deed ki duniya bhi tamaashaai hai
toone kya mujhako mohabbat mein bana rakha hai
nannanana jab se tune haan jab se tune

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali-hum_ko_kis_ke_ghum_ne_mara_ye_kahani_fir_sahi_0#ixzz3vCdn6wPf

https://youtu.be/vpHpiiPmdRI

 

hum ko kis ke ghum ne mara ye kahani fir sahi lyrics

 

DIL KI CHOTON NE KABHI CHAIN SE RAHNE NA DIYA
JAB Chali SARD HAWA MAIN NE TUJHE YAAD KIYA
IS KA RONA Nahi KYON TUM NE KIYA DIL BARBAAD
IS KA GHAM HAI KE BAHUT DAIR MEIN BARBAAD KIYA

HUM KO KIS KE GHUM NE MARA YE KAHANI PHIR SAHI
KIS NE TODA DIL HAMARA YE KAHANI PHIR SAHI

DIL KE LUTNAY KA SABAB POOCHHO NA SABKE SAAMNE
NAAM AAYEGA TUMHARA YE KAHANI PHIR SAHI

NAFRATON KE TEER KHAKAR DOSTON KE SHEHAR MAIN
HUM NE KIS KIS KO PUKAARA YE KAHANAI PHIR SAHI

KYA BATAAYEN PYAAR KI BAAZI WAFA KI RAAH MEIN
KAUN JEETA KAUN HAARA YE KAHANI PHIR SAHI

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali/itni_muddat_baad_mile_ho-lyrics-1215674.html#ixzz3vCdz0dZ0

https://youtu.be/qzSuC3UrWlE

Itni Muddat Baad Mile Ho lyrics

Itni muddat baad mile ho
Kin sochon mein goom rahte ho

Tej hawaa ne mujhase pucha
Ret pe kya likhte rahte ho

Kaunsi baat hai tumme aaise
Itne achche kyun lagte ho

Hamse na pucho hizr ke kisse
Apni kaho, ab tum kaise ho.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MISCALLENEOUS

Ghulam Ali song lyrics

·         Ab Toh Iss Tarah

·         Abra Barsa Na Hawa

·         Baagon Mein Pade Jhoole

·         Bheed Mein Ek Ajnabi

D

·         Dekhkar Dilkashi Zamaane Ki

·         Dil Mein Kisi Ke

·         Dukh Ki Lehar Ne Chheda Hoga

E

·         Ek Hamein Aawara Kehna

·         Ek Lamha Maykade

·         Ek Pagli Mera Naam

H

·         Hamne Hasrato Ke Daag

·         HUNGAAMA HAI KYON BARPAA

·         Iska Rona Nahi

J

·         Jabse Tune Mujhe Deewana Bana Rakha Hai

·         Jahaan Talak Bhi Ye Sehra

·         Jan Tasawuur Mera Chupke Se

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali#ixzz3vCbXzIdJ

K

·         Kaab Banke Bikharti Jaati Hai

·         Kaahe Banao Jhoothi

·         Kaun Hai Jisne May Nahi Chakkhi

·         Kutch Soch Raha Hu

·         Mera Jazbe Mohabbat Kam Na hoga

·         Na Jaane Kab Wo Palat Aaye

·         Nagri Nagri Phira Musafir

·         Purani Hawaa

·         Ruk Gaya Aankh Se

·         saki sharab la

·         Sochate Aur Jaagte Saason Ka Ek Dariya Hoon

·         Tum Bin Aawe Na Chain

·         Woh Jo Hum Mein Tum Mein

·         Woh Kabhi Mil Jaaye Toh

Y

·         Ye Faasala Jo Pada Hai

·         Yeh Dil Ye Pagal

·         Yeh kisne keh dia akhir k chup chupa k pio

·         Zakm-e-Tanhaai Mein

Submit new song

http://www.allthelyrics.com/lyrics/ghulam_ali#ixzz3vCbG2Joq

Top 5 songs

1.    Chupke Chupke Raat Din

2.    Chamakte Chaand Ko

3.    Jabse Tune Mujhe Deewana Bana Rakha Hai

4.    hum ko kis ke ghum ne mara ye kahani fir sahi

5.    Itni Muddat Baad Mile Ho

 5 songs more

1.        Dukh Ki Lehar Ne Chheda Hoga

·         (Poet Nasie Kazmi)

https://youtu.be/lYU8Q_Ma7Jg

2        HUNGAAMA HAI KYON BARPAA

         

3   Kaahe Banao Jhoothi

4      Sochate Aur Jaagte Saason Ka Ek Dariya Hoon

5    Yeh Dil Ye Paga

CNX Nifty : Time Frame 75 Minute - As on 27/03/2015

CNX Nifty Chart in TF75 Minutes, created manually & subsequently aided by NetDania table of 15 Minutes Nifty ; full data are shared  with the following link :


https://excel.office.live.com/x/ExcelView.aspx?FBsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fattachments%2Ffile_preview.php%3Fid%3D1559283447655492%26time%3D1427470723%26metadata&access_token=1835286898%3AAVI0HQc-QX6w6imKZz8-0L2NzaWNyXDf-6emX786k3w_ow&title=CNX+NIFTY_TF75+%28EWO%29_DN.xlsx


By TF75 minutes Nifty is analysed by symmetric candles - five candles covering the full working from 09:15 to 15:30 hours in Indian Stock Exchange. Chart covers from 13th February 2015 to 27th March 2015.

Labels to be watched next couple of days in case of  expected up moves are listed. Incidentally H_n_S pattern had lead to approximate fall of 400 points in comparison of head height of 450 points.

CNX NIFTY INDEX Time Frame : Cycles of 21 days

Some orthodox TA resents a Chart of less than 150 candles to my blog :

http://kolkatabull.blogspot.in/2015/03/cnx-nifty-index-time-frame-bi-monthly.html .

With a weird idea, I prepared an Excel of  TF of 21 days (21 being a Fibonacci number) starting with 03/11/1995 (being the first day of OHLC basis NSE Nifty Index) ; it is compiled  based on data for 21 days. It is a better option in the sense that each Candle cover a fixed period rather than irregular days in a month. Chart with 150 candles were prepared as below :



Last candle is based on data for the period starting on 16/02/2015 & 14/03/2015 and as such in progress.

Time Frame for CNX Nifty

http://www.netdania.com & others provide live, although a bit delayed, Nifty & a select others Date in  1, 5, 15, 30 , 60, 120 minutes etc : out of these data in 30,60 & 120 minutes are
asymmetric in the sense that Indian stock exchange timing being from 09;15 to 15:30 hours (covering 6 hours 15 minutes = 375 Minutes) ,e.g.,

14 candles of 30 Minutes in a day ;

7 candles of 60 Minutes in a day ; &

4 candles of 120 Minutes in a day.

IMHO a time frame of 25 Minutes, covering the day in 15 candles, 75 Minutes, covering the day in 5 candles & 125 minutes, covering the day in 3 candles would prove very good for Technical Analyst. These would be more popular than 30 Minutes, 1 hour & 2 hours simply for being UNIFORM & SYMMETRICAL in character. 

Wish Data provider heed my suggestion. In the meanwhile, I am making TF 75 Minutes for my own use.

CNX Nifty Index : Time Frame Bi-Monthly

"The most important single concept about the Elliott Oscillator is that the highest/lowest point of the Oscillator is connected to the bullish/bearish Wave 3 of the swing.  Related concepts are that Wave 4 crosses the zero line in the opposite direction of the trend. Wave 5 often makes a new high or low price for the swing but always diverges from the Oscillator. If the suspected Wave 5 makes a new extreme price simultaneously with a new Oscillator extreme then it is not a Wave 5."

"The Elliott Oscillator is most effective when the chart has the "correct" number of bars. From 100 to 150 bars is the correct number of bars to use with the oscillator. Dr. Bill Williams suggests 100-140. Tom Joseph implies that 150 is right. We like to use about 120 bars, which is comfortably in the middle of that range, and which has consistently produced reliable results."

Nifty Index is being compiled since 02/07/1990 ; as such, a Time Frame of Bi-Monthly (Open, High, Low & Close over a period of two months for the Index) cover the full range of the Index since inception.  Full range Chart in 148 candles is shown herein.

MACD (5,34,5) is not available for the first 39 candles due to default Data requirement. As such, using a zoomed view over last 100 candles fulfilling the minimum requirement :

Presently, Nifty is in Wave 5 of the bigger degree IMHO. Let us see if it is correctly label in next few months.

112 Candles  Chart cover additional two years of trades. Rest as in other Charts.